The steel downstream demand in the fourth quarter

2022-08-02
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In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 6.9% year-on-year, falling below the public's psychological bottom line of 7%. The central bank cut reserve requirements and interest rates five times to further reduce social financing costs. However, traditional industries continue to suffer from overcapacity, destocking and structural adjustment, and the downward pressure on the industrial sector is enormous. With the expectation of the US interest rate hike further strengthened, China's capital outflow is obvious, putting pressure on the export market. It can be said that 2015 is the most difficult year for China's economic operation

without exception, infrastructure, real estate, automobile, machinery, household appliances, shipbuilding and other industries have suffered a cold wave. As the upstream of these industries, the iron and steel industry continues to make in-depth adjustment while the output remains high and the downstream demand shrinks significantly. According to my steel statistics, the steel index dropped by 29.4 percentage points from 105.5 points this year to 76.1 points today, hitting a new low in the cycle

the first three quarters have passed, and the fourth quarter has become the final sprint period for all walks of life. In combination with the performance of the main downstream industries of steel in the first three quarters, and the implementation of the stimulus policies for various industries, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union has predicted the operation status of the main downstream industries in the fourth quarter

"tiegongji" investment is in full bloom.

in the first three quarters, the growth rate of national fixed asset investment continued to decline. However, after the State Council continued to accelerate infrastructure investment, the scale of transportation and railway investment showed a rising trend as expected

in order to underpin the economic growth, the State Council proposed at the beginning of the year that the railway construction investment of more than 800billion yuan and the newly put into operation mileage of more than 8000 kilometers should be completed this year under the planned investment of 800billion yuan in railway fixed assets in 2014. From January to August, the railway completed an investment of 378.629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. From January to September, the investment in highway construction was 1153.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; The investment in water transport construction was 100.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%

in addition to railway projects, the construction of urban rail transit projects has also become a major focus in the field of infrastructure in China. In general, since the beginning of this year, the total investment in newly approved projects in the transportation field, including urban rail transit, intercity railways, high-speed railways and expressways, has exceeded RMB 1.5 trillion

this year is the last year of the 12th Five Year Plan. Many projects are in the rush period. The fourth quarter is the peak construction season. Considering the need for steady growth and the need to supplement the construction weaknesses in the central and western regions, the total annual infrastructure investment will exceed trillion yuan

the growth rate of real estate sales has slowed down, and the development investment is still in the doldrums. In the first three quarters, with the continuous introduction of favorable policies such as the central government's continued reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, reduction of down payment and relaxation of the credit threshold of provident fund, the market recovery trend was clear, and the transaction volume reached a record high in the same period for many consecutive months. However, the investment confidence of enterprises has not been restored. In the first three quarters, the scale of land acquisition by real estate enterprises reached a new low in nearly five years, especially the decline in the area of new housing construction continued to narrow

looking forward to the fourth quarter, with the gradual weakening of the effect of the government's stimulus policies, the market supply has ushered in a seasonal peak, and the supply and marketing situation in the fourth quarter will become more rational. At present, the overall inventory in the market is still at a high level, and some cities even rebounded again. It is expected that the transaction scale in the fourth quarter is slightly lower than that in the third quarter, but it will still be at a higher level in the same period in history

manufacturing demand continues to shrink

the situation of manufacturing demand continues to shrink is grim

among them, the production and sales of the automobile industry in the first three quarters were 17.0916 million and 17.0565 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0. Control system: 82%, and the sales volume increased by 0.31%. It was not until September that the overall decline of the automobile market showed signs of improvement. Under the downward trend of the overall economy and the imbalance between supply and demand in the automobile market, the main task of major automobile enterprises is to clean up their inventories and ease the pressure

the output data of construction machinery industry in the first three quarters fell significantly. From January to September, the output of compaction machinery was 27000 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared with that from January to August; The output of concrete machinery was 286000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, 2 percentage points narrower than that from January to August; The output of excavators, shovels and transporters was 196000, a year-on-year decrease of 31% and a decrease of 1 percentage point; Internal combustion forklift production 17 its excellent adhesion with thermoplastic 50000 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and an increase of 1 percentage point. According to the latest statistics of excavator data in September, 29 major excavator manufacturers nationwide sold 3197 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 29.92% compared with 4562 excavators in September 2014. The sales volume of other varieties continued to decline, and the negative growth remained the main tone of the industry, which was rooted in the insufficient investment demand of the upstream. However, with the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the improvement of downstream construction progress, the main domestic construction machinery market will still need more than one year to adjust, and the industry will continue to spend the cold winter in the fourth quarter of this year

the shipbuilding industry completed 29.37 million deadweight tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% Time 1 long 7%; New orders for new ships reached 18.16 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 65.4%; Orders for hand-held ships reached 133.27 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% and a decrease of 10.8% over the end of 2014. From January to September, China's export ships accounted for 88%, 86.4% and 95.3% of the national shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders respectively. The operation of shipbuilding enterprises is still difficult. It is worth noting that the number of new orders has declined significantly, mainly because, on the one hand, the world economic recovery has slowed down, the contradiction between supply and demand in the shipping market has not been fundamentally resolved, and orders have gradually decreased; On the other hand, the BDI index fell rapidly after two rounds of rebound, and the trading volume of bulk carriers fell sharply. With the end of the consumption season in September and October and the continuous contraction of international trade, the subsequent BDI indicates that the number of new and old kinetic energy conversion will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the number of new orders received in the fourth quarter will continue to decline, and the shipbuilding market is still in a dilemma

the growth of commodity sales in the household appliance industry continued to slow down in the first three quarters. It is understood that in the first eight months, the production and sales rate of the household appliance industry was 95.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the same period in 2014. This is mainly because the impact of the housing market will not change fundamentally in the short term, and the impact of consumer overdraft will last for several years, which restricts the release of demand in the home appliance market. With the sustained economic recovery in Europe and the United States and the depreciation of the RMB, the export market of household appliances improved slightly. From January to August, the cumulative export delivery value of the industry was 235.05 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Benefiting from the reduction of raw material costs, the total profit of the industry was 55.45 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.9%. However, considering the consumption overdraft caused by the vigorous promotion of the "golden nine silver ten" merchants and the limited recovery of the real estate market, it is difficult to change the declining trend of household appliance market sales in the fourth quarter

according to the analysis of my senior steel analysts, in general, the infrastructure continued to grow at a high rate in the fourth quarter, the real estate investment market was weak and difficult to change, and the risk of shrinking manufacturing demand increased. As a result, in the major downstream industries of iron and steel in the fourth quarter, except for infrastructure construction, it showed an overall weak state

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